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Risk Scenarios and macroeconomic forecast

2025

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This paper analyzes the impact of various risk scenarios on the Canadian economy using a vector autoregressive model.
* Explores four distinct risk scenarios: high oil prices, a U.S. recession, a tight labor market, and restrictive monetary policy.
* Utilizes a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to generate macroeconomic forecasts conditional on these scenarios.
* Presents findings on how each scenario significantly affects key Canadian economic indicators like inflation, unemployment, and exchange rates.
Tags: macroeconomic forecast, risk scenarios, Canada, VAR model, economic policy

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