AI Non-Proliferation and the China Parity Risk

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) This assessment argues that China's pursuit of AI parity poses a Tier 1 proliferation risk, necessitating a new governance architecture to prevent weaponized AI from falling into the hands of adversaries and criminal networks.
2) * China is projected to achieve functional parity with Western AI decision intelligence platforms within three to seven years, driven by its aggressive national AI program and civilian-military fusion policy.
* The proliferation of advanced AI capabilities to criminal organizations presents a significant risk, enabling large-scale surveillance, financial crime, and human trafficking.
* Existing non-proliferation frameworks are inadequate for governing AI due to its intangible nature; a new regime is proposed, drawing lessons from nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons control.
3) AI, China, Non-Proliferation, Governance, Risk

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