Geopolitical Hybrid Threats

2026

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This research brief analyzes the macroeconomic and financial impacts of geopolitical hybrid threats, revealing their primary effect on aggregate demand and policy responses.

* Development of a novel Geopolitical Hybrid Threat (GHT) index based on newspaper coverage.
* Analysis of the macroeconomic and financial effects of hybrid threat shocks using a VAR model.
* Findings indicate hybrid threats primarily suppress aggregate demand, triggering policy easing and increased defense spending.

Tags: geopolitical, hybrid threats, economics, finance, policy

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