Geopolitical hybrid threats

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) This paper introduces a novel index of geopolitical hybrid threats and analyzes their significant macroeconomic and financial impacts, revealing a demand-side shock mechanism.
2) * Development of a Geopolitical Hybrid Threat (GHT) index using newspaper coverage analysis.
* Empirical analysis of the macroeconomic and financial effects of hybrid threat shocks using a proxy VAR model.
* Findings indicate that hybrid threats suppress aggregate demand, leading to policy responses like increased defense spending and monetary easing.
3) Geopolitical Risk, Hybrid Threats, Proxy VAR, Textual Analysis, Macroeconomic Impact

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