Using foresight to anticipate emerging critical risks

2024

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AI-generated summary

1) This paper provides policymakers with a structured strategic foresight methodology to identify, characterize, and proactively manage complex global emerging critical risks.
2)
- Outlines a three-phase approach consisting of horizon scanning, exploration and reframing cycles, and risk characterization.
- Utilizes innovative tools including patent analysis, generative AI, futures wheels, cross-impact analysis, and alternative "Risk-Worlds" scenarios.
- Establishes core principles of effective practice—such as anticipation, multidisciplinarity, and systems thinking—to enhance government preparedness.
3) Tags: strategic foresight, risk management, horizon scanning, public governance, scenario planning

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