Bayes and Base Rates

2026

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This report uses Bayes' Theorem and historical "base rates" to assess the plausibility of aggressive growth forecasts for AI companies like OpenAI and Oracle, highlighting the importance of historical data in evaluating future potential.

* Explains Bayes' Theorem as a method to update beliefs with new data.
* Analyzes historical sales growth data for companies of similar size to establish "base rates."
* Applies base rate analysis to evaluate the ambitious growth projections of OpenAI and Oracle.

Tags: Bayes' Theorem, base rates, AI, forecasting, investment analysis

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