MAPPING TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJECTORIES: EVIDENCE FROM TWO CENTURIES OF PATENT DATA

2026

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This paper introduces a novel methodology to measure and analyze national innovation capabilities over two centuries using patent data, offering crucial insights into the drivers of economic growth.

* **Methodology:** Develops a new approach to measure "technological trajectories" by analyzing foreign patent filings across multiple patent offices to mitigate home bias.
* **Historical Trends:** Documents the rise of the US and Germany, the decline of the UK, and the emergence of Japan and China as major innovators over two centuries.
* **Drivers of Innovation:** Establishes strong correlations between technological trajectories and factors such as R&D investment, education, and defense spending.

Tags: innovation, patent data, technological trajectories, economic growth, R&D

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