Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI

2026

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This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic consequences of AI between 2026 and 2030, illustrating three scenarios: modest, substantial, and extreme.

* A framework for assessing AI's economic consequences, mapping AI capabilities to GDP, labor share, wages, and unemployment.
* Analysis of three scenarios: modest, substantial, and extreme, detailing their impact on GDP growth, labor share, and cognitive worker unemployment.
* Comparison of model predictions with survey data on US adults' expectations for AI's economic impact.

Tags: AI, economics, scenarios, labor market, GDP

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