The End of Baseline Innovation Designing UK Innovation Portfolios For Volatility and Rupture

2026

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This paper argues that the UK's innovation portfolios must be redesigned to account for increasing volatility and rupture, moving beyond traditional baseline assumptions.

* Explores four distinct pathways of innovation (Baseline, Degradation, Volatility, Rupture) and their implications for preparedness.
* Analyzes the systemic risks and hard assumptions driving the UK's exposure to coupled volatility.
* Proposes a shift from project-based innovation to a portfolio of preparedness logics for navigating complex and uncertain futures.

Tags: innovation, UK, portfolio, volatility, rupture

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