Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) This study reveals that AI automation is progressing as a "rising tide" of gradual, broad-based improvement rather than abrupt "crashing waves," with significant implications for the labor market.
2) The paper presents preliminary findings from thousands of worker evaluations of AI automation across over 3,000 labor market tasks, detailing AI performance trends, task duration impacts, and future projections.
3) It analyzes the effects of model size and age on AI capabilities, compares findings to existing research, and discusses the limitations and future directions of AI automation research.
Tags: AI automation, labor market, LLMs, task duration, rising tide

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