Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts

2025

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This paper explores the utility of risk scenarios for monitoring the Canadian economy by employing a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to generate macroeconomic forecasts under various hypothetical conditions.

* Examines four distinct risk scenarios: high oil prices, a U.S. recession, a tight labor market, and restrictive monetary policy.
* Analyzes the impact of these scenarios on key Canadian economic variables using a VAR model.
* Provides insights into how specific economic shocks can influence the Canadian economy's trajectory.

Tags: Macroeconomic forecasting, Risk scenarios, Vector autoregression, Canadian economy, Economic shocks

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