Polymarket Under the Polygraph Market Abuse in the Age of Onchain Prediction Markets

2026

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This report reveals how onchain prediction markets, despite their promise of transparency, are susceptible to sophisticated market abuse, necessitating advanced surveillance for integrity.

* Analysis of Polymarket data showing extreme profit concentration, with less than 1% of wallets capturing nearly 50% of profits.
* Detailed examination of wash trading, including cross-symbol wash trading unique to prediction markets, and its impact on market volume.
* Case studies of insider trading, demonstrating how non-public information, even about media publications, can be exploited through traceable onchain activity.

Tags: prediction markets, market abuse, onchain analysis, wash trading, insider trading

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