Nowcasting Country-level Trade Estimates using IMF PortWatch

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) This paper introduces a novel methodology for generating timely country-level trade estimates by leveraging satellite-based big data from IMF PortWatch, offering a crucial tool for understanding global trade dynamics.
2) * Details a nowcasting methodology that utilizes Automatic Identification System (AIS) data to estimate monthly trade values and volumes within seven working days of the reporting period.
* Validates the nowcasting estimates against official statistics for a diverse set of countries, including advanced economies and emerging markets, assessing performance through correlation and RMSE metrics.
* Explores country-specific adjustments and considerations, such as port coverage, netting adjustments, specialized port handling, and the use of official deflators, to enhance the accuracy and comparability of the estimates.
3) Nowcasting, maritime trade, big data, IMF PortWatch, trade estimates

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