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Nowcasting Low-Income Countries Through Global Linkages

2026

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This paper develops a novel model to estimate quarterly GDP for low-income countries by leveraging global economic linkages, crucial for timely policymaking and economic analysis.

* A dynamic factor model is presented to estimate missing quarterly GDP series by utilizing global and regional economic interconnections.
* The methodology transforms sparse annual data into quarterly estimates by exploiting higher-frequency information from other economies.
* The model ensures internally consistent estimates of regional and global economic activity, enabling robust scenario analyses.

Tags: nowcasting, low-income countries, global linkages, GDP estimation, dynamic factor models

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