Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth_ - San Francisco Fed

2026

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This San Francisco Fed Economic Letter analyzes whether recent economic trends, particularly AI investment, signal a new era of high productivity growth, drawing parallels to the 1990s tech boom.

* Examines the divergence between labor productivity and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth.
* Utilizes a regime-switching model to assess the probability of a high-growth productivity regime.
* Compares current economic signals to the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge.

Tags: productivity, AI, economic growth, TFP, labor productivity

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