Transition 4.0 Plan: An Assessment of Investment, Employment and Productivity Effects1

2026

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This report assesses the economic impact of Italy's Transition 4.0 Plan, revealing its effectiveness in stimulating investment and capital accumulation, particularly among smaller firms, while showing limited direct impact on productivity.

* Analyzes the investment, employment, and productivity effects of the Transition 4.0 Plan using a synthetic difference-in-differences methodology.
* Details the distribution of tax credits across firm sizes, sectors, and geographical areas, highlighting significant investment responses from micro and small enterprises.
* Evaluates the aggregate effects, including investment multipliers and cost per additional job, and discusses the fiscal implications and the limited productivity gains observed.

Tags: Italy, Transition 4.0, Investment, Employment, Productivity

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