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ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

2026

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This report provides the European Central Bank's staff's latest macroeconomic projections for the euro area, detailing expected economic growth, inflation, and key risks.

* **Baseline Projections:** Outlines the central forecast for real GDP and HICP inflation, considering current economic conditions and technical assumptions.
* **Alternative Scenarios:** Explores the potential economic implications of the war in the Middle East through "adverse" and "severe" scenarios, examining impacts on energy prices, uncertainty, and inflation.
* **Sensitivity Analyses:** Investigates the effects of alternative energy price paths and exchange rate movements on the euro area economy.

Tags: ECB, euro area, macroeconomic projections, inflation, GDP

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