How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) This report uses historical data and Bayesian principles to assess the plausibility of aggressive growth forecasts for generative AI companies.
2) - Explores the application of Bayes' Theorem and base rates for evaluating future projections.
- Analyzes the growth forecasts of OpenAI and Oracle Cloud against historical company performance.
- Discusses the challenges and strategic rationales behind the significant investments in AI infrastructure.
3) AI, Generative AI, Forecasting, Bayes' Theorem, Base Rates

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