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The Economics of a Shrinking World

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) Humanity is likely below replacement fertility, a phenomenon unprecedented in history, with significant economic implications for slow growth.
2) This paper analyzes the global decline in fertility, fitting a single-factor model to 236 countries since 1950 to identify common and country-specific trends. It explores potential causes, including modernity itself, and discusses the economic consequences of a shrinking world.
3) fertility decline, demographic transition, population aging, economic growth, labor force

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