Are we Doomed to an AI Race? Why Self-Interest Could Drive Countries Towards a Moratorium on Superintelligence

2026

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AI-generated summary

1) Self-interest, driven by the potential for catastrophic outcomes from uncontrolled AI, could paradoxically lead nations to pursue a moratorium on superintelligence development rather than an arms race.

2) This paper uses game theory to model the strategic interactions between geopolitical superpowers regarding Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) development, identifying conditions under which a moratorium is not contrary to a state's self-interest. It analyzes four strategic worlds—Safe Harmony, Trust, Subversion, and Preemption—and the critical role of the perceived cost of losing control over ASI in shaping these outcomes.

3) The analysis reveals that a lower winner's advantage and greater uncertainty about ASI development increase the likelihood of a stable moratorium, suggesting that current geopolitical realities may be shifting towards conditions favoring cooperation.

Tags: AI, Superintelligence, Game Theory, Moratorium, Geopolitics

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